Here is news for cheer. The Indian Metrological Department (IMD) announced what is the happiest tiding for India, weather-wise. South West monsoon 2021 over India will be normal.

The much awaited news was announced at the first long-range forecast of the monsoon. The IMD said that the monsoon, as a whole (June to September) will be between 96 to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.

A few days earlier, Skymet, the private forecaster, too, had announced that the monsoon will be normal and healthy at 103 per cent of the LPA. If this year’s monsoon indeed behaves according to forecast, it will be a unique hat trick, with three consecutive years 2019, 2020 and 2021 having normal monsoon. Already, pre-monsoon rains have begun over the southern peninsula.

The forecasters have not announced the date of onset of the monsoon, which is usually done sometime in May.

Secretary, Earth Sciences, Rajeevan Nair said that at present, neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecast indicates neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific and negative IOD conditions are likely to develop over the Indian Ocean during the ensuing monsoon season. While the performance of the Indian monsoon depends on many variables, the ENSO Ian the most influential.

“As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins. IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May 2021,” Nair said.


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